The aggregate analysis of logistics cost and total factor productivity

Abstract

The study surveys the relationship of logistics cost and total factor productivity (TFP). The paper discusses the theoretical aspect of TFP growth estimation and the concept of logistics cost as percentage of GDP as the factor indicating efficiency in logistics operations. Calculation of TFP from 1960-2001 is obtained by using growth accounting method. Linear regression analysis between logistics cost and TFP shows significant correlations with negative coefficient between TFP and inventory level of the same year. It also shows correlation with negative coefficient of one-year lagged TFP and following independent variables, logistics cost, inventory level, inventory carrying rate, and inventory carrying cost. Correlation implies the link between logistics efficiency and economy's productivity. Line fit plot for each significant correlation show the common time period of 1973-1986 for the series, which suggests that periods of recession and trucking deregulation might cause abrupt qualitative changes in logistics operations.